Four Electoral Votes

It looks like our measly 4 electoral votes in New Hampshire are going to be enough to get significant attention from the presidential candidates this year. Here in New Hampshire, we're very much used to getting tremendous attention the year before every presidential election due to our early primary, and then being almost completely ignored thereafter. This year, however, we're a "swing state". If our four votes had gone to Mr. Gore last year, and a swing of fewer than 4,000 voters would have done it, George W. Bush would not have been elected. We were, of course, just one of several states with very close races that could have changed the outcome. Conventional wisdom in the press says that since Senator Kerry is a New Englander, he's got a good chance in New Hampshire -- and in fact he's leading in the polls. I would challenge that conventional wisdom though, because he's from Massachusetts, not New England, as far as the majority of New Hampshire's conservatives are concerned, and being from Massachusetts compounds the sin of being Liberal. I believe that the reason that Kerry has a good chance in New Hampshire has more to do with the fact that President Bush is not seen as a true conservative here. If that's enough to get Kerry elected, that's fine according to this particular New Hampshire Liberal ;-)

Another thing I'd like to point out about the conventional wisdom that I hear from the pundits all the time: it is frequently mentioned (as it is in the report linked above) that New Hampshire has a very high percentage of people who register as independents instead of as Democrats or Republicans. The conclusion reached by the pundits is usually that we here in New Hampshire are truly more independent-minded and less influenced by major party politics than elsewhere. That's the wrong conclusion. People here register as independents for one very good reason: it allows them to choose at the last minute which primary election that they can vote in. Registered Democrats must vote in the Democratic primary, and Registered Republicans must vote in the Republican primary. Independents may vote in either (and immediately after voting, they must re-affirm their independent status so as not to be automatically registered for the party whose primary they voted in). Someone who has every intention of voting Republican in the general election can make a last minute choice to vote in the Democratic primary, and in a case where the Republican primary outcome is a foregone conclusion (as it was this year) that's the sensible thing to do because it gives the New Hampshire voter a greater say in shaping the direction of election. Right-leaning independents who vote in the Democratic primary, and left-leaning independents who vote in the Republican party have the effect of pulling both parties toward the center. So don't let the fact that we have lots of independents here make you think that we're less influenced by the major parties. There's probably a higher proportion of people here who would never in their wildest dreams vote for a Democrat than in most other states. We're a conservative state, but we're a smart state where voters take the process seriously and understand how to maximize their influence. That's why we have so many registered independents.